If the Iran War Drags On, Food Crisis Follows — This Genuinely Worries Me

The connection between Middle East conflict and global food security is less direct than the oil connection but ultimately as significant. The mechanism runs through fertilizer — natural gas is a primary input for nitrogen fertilizer production, and disruptions to Gulf gas supply affect agricultural input costs globally, with the heaviest effects on food-importing nations with limited foreign exchange reserves.

Iran is also a significant wheat producer, and regional conflict disrupts the agricultural cycles of neighboring countries. For Japan, the food security concern is less about direct supply chain disruption than about the inflationary effects of higher fertilizer and energy costs on imported food prices. The second-order effects of a prolonged regional war include food price inflation in countries that have nothing to do with the conflict.

Analysis based on public reporting. Global Watch Japan.