Looking ahead, the April 6 deadline is the most important near-term milestone. If no diplomatic contact has occurred by then, the US military is expected to resume strikes on Iranian energy and power grid infrastructure. The oil price and humanitarian consequences would be severe. If some form of quiet contact does occur, the most likely outcome is not a comprehensive peace deal but a partial, localized freeze — a “conflict on pause” rather than a conflict resolved. The most realistic scenario is a prolonged ambiguous stalemate: the Strait reopens partially, Iran retains enough of its program to avoid claiming total defeat, and the underlying tensions remain unresolved for years. Japan will have to live with that uncertainty — which makes building genuine energy security, not just emergency reserves, the most important long-term strategic investment Japan can make right now.
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灰島
30代の日本人。国際情勢・地政学・経済を日常的に読み続けている。歴史の文脈から現代を読むアプローチで、世界のニュースを考察している。専門家ではないが、誠実に、感情も交えながら書く。
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