What worries me most about this war is the absence of an exit ramp. The United States can degrade Iran militarily, but it cannot destroy Iran as a nation, a society, or a civilization. Iran has 85 million people and a history stretching back millennia. History from Iraq to Afghanistan has shown repeatedly that military destruction does not automatically produce political resolution. Destroying Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure does not eliminate Iran’s persistent hostility. In the long run, it is more likely to produce deeper anti-Americanism and a clandestine return to nuclear ambitions. Wars of this type almost always end in some form of political compromise — and the earlier that compromise is designed, the less chaos surrounds it when it eventually comes.
この記事を書いた人
灰島
30代の日本人。国際情勢・地政学・経済を日常的に読み続けている。歴史の文脈から現代を読むアプローチで、世界のニュースを考察している。専門家ではないが、誠実に、感情も交えながら書く。

コメント